Horse Racing Tips

One of Newmarket’s most dominant trainers, Jeremy Noseda has attained Classic race stardom with Araafa and a host of notable Group race success including the likes of Belmont, Carry On Katie, Just James, Kalypso Katie, Mellow Park, Proclamation, Sixties Icon, Soldiers Tale, Wannabe Grand and Wilko. Few trainers have such a wealth of influential owners or the capability of winning at the highest level throughout the world.

Noseda is a talented trainer of two-year-olds. In recent years he has averaged 30 juvenile runners racing from May onwards, often featuring entrants at Royal Ascot. With an average win rate of 20% for all runners and 50% win and place he has achieved significant statistics. In recent years his juveniles have attained a 15% win rate on debut. It should be noted that approximately half of all juveniles have been priced 13/2 & less on debut which somewhat tempers enthusiasm. With improved fitness, experience and good placing of youngsters’ significantly higher statistics have been noted on their second starts. Once again, runners are likely to be short prices. However, juveniles at bigger odds have featured quite good place averages. In general, Jeremy Noseda trains a high standard of horse, often multiple-Pattern entered juveniles, and as history has proven, they are capable of winning at Group level. With a select list of owners, such as Sir Robert Ogden, M Tabor, Saeed Suhail, Cheveley Park Stud, M Green & Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, it is easy to see why his two-year-olds demand much respect.

Noseda will be looking to make 2010 another prosperous season.

Few trainers have attained the successes of Luca Cumani, the master of talents within his famous Bedford House stables – a place of folklore within Newmarket’s history of racing. Here the likes of Kahyasi, Barathea, High Rise, One So Wonderful, Gassamer, Falbrav, Starcraft and Alkaased have galloped towards astounding achievements that need little introduction.

But what are we to make of Cumani’s juveniles in recent years?

In many ways his general standard of two-year-old has been poor compared with such lofty highs of past. However, this twilight was lifted in spectacular fashion with the dawn of a the well-named Fantasia, winner of the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood and gallant second in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Ascot to the impressive Rainbow View. The 1000 Guineas will be one of her ultimate tests to join her peers.

Cumani’s juvenile statistics make very interesting reading, revealing a surprise or two. Perhaps most unsurprising is the fact that his juveniles seldom win on debut. In the last few years he has attained about a 6% win rate on debut and all of these winners were prices 8/1 & less. Clearly the likes of Fantasia, winning at 7/1, are known to have ability but inexperience makes winning a difficult goal to achieve on their racecourse bow.

The surprising point about Cumani is that juveniles on their second start have struggled to win when priced 13/2 & less in recent years. In fact his win performance with these candidates has been nothing short of horrendous. However, in contrast he has maintained a high place average, which probably suggests that many of his two-year-olds have not attained the highest of standards and fail to get their nose in front when placed to do so. It is interesting that a number of winners have been priced 8/1+. From experience, I have noted a number of talented juveniles running at Great Yarmouth.

It will be interesting to see what this year’s crop of two-year-olds may bring. Cumani will be hoping that Fantasia can live the dream attaining Classic race success. In contrast, he will be a very lucky man to find the likes of her within this year’s string. But few would be so foolish to say that Cumani will not have an ace, if not a whole pack of cards up his sleeve. As past successes prove anything is possible with this gifted trainer.

Without doubt Henry Cecil is a trainer of champions.

The winner of 35 classic races in the United Kingdom and abroad, including the 1000 Guineas on (6) occasions, 2000 Guineas (2), Derby (4), Oaks (8) & St. Leger (4) it could be argued that there is little left to achieve. To wonder at names of equine stars such as Wollow, Bosra Sham, Reference Point, Diminuendo & Michelozzo, which read like a wish list of fairytale proportions only to find that in reality the end of the rainbow, led to the stables of Warren Place. In 1985 Cecil’s talents were seen to their greatest when Oh So Sharp completed the fillies’ Triple Crown.

From the highs of the 90s Cecil’s stable went through a well-publicised decline but much has change in the last few years and the phoenix has most definitely risen from the flames.

Over the past few couple of seasons it is apparent that Cecil has been increasing not only the numbers of two-year-olds in his care but the quality of his juveniles. The Horses In Training 2009 publication details that he has over 50 two-year-olds and with owners such as K. Abdullah, Bloomsbury Stud & Niarchos Family and a wealth of well-bred horses. Who is to say this season will not be the one to deliver another class act.

From reviewing Cecil’s statistics it isn’t surprising to note that his general standard of two-year-old must be respected. His first runners are most likely to be seen from June onwards although he does have a debutant or two in May. It is interesting that about 40% of his juveniles are priced 13/2 & less on their first racecourse appearance such is his reputation. However, Cecil isn’t the most likely of trainers to win on debut and many of his juveniles are poor value in this respect. His juveniles are more likely to win on their second start and reason why he features fair win & place statistics. Again, such is his standing that the majority of winners will be priced at shorter rather than longer odds. It is always worth noting the juveniles in receipt of group entries, as they are generally the most capable in his yard.

There seems little doubt that Cecil will endeavour to find his next Classic horse. This talented, modest man has and will continue to smile through times of rain and shine because he knows only too well that when that rainbow appears it will probably span from Doncaster, Epsom or Newmarket to a stable named Warren Place.

Sylvester Kirk’s Cedar Lodge stable at Upper Lambourn has often been the home of a decent two-year-old. In recent years Elhamri and Caldra, both running in the familiar colours of owner Norman Ormiston, see photo, have clearly marked Kirk as a talented trainer with wins in listed and group class events. With additional owners such as J.C.Smith, Lady Davis (Art Master), Deauville Daze Partnership (Talking Hands) & Christopher Wright, to name a few, there is always a chance he will soon be adding to his tally.

Kirk is an interesting trainer with a very contrasting level of two-year-olds. His general statistics indicate that he is very unlikely to win on debut and even short-priced juveniles priced 10/1 & less have only attained limited success although around 50% of these individuals managed a place. This again shows the difficultly of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow. For juveniles priced 13/2 & less on second start he maintains a healthy win and place rate and often does well at all-weather tracks. Although often noted as a gambling stable, I have found such plunges rather hit-and-miss.
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Kirk can certainly delivery if he has a decent juvenile.

Probably better known to the general public for his exploits as the trainer of the much-loved Desert Orchid, David Elsworth gained significance as a trainer on the Flat in the 80s with the much-acclaimed Dead Certain an exceptional multi Group-winning filly whose impressive two-year-old season was crowned with the game victory of the Tattersalls Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). In recent years, Egerton House Stables, Newmarket, Suffolk has been a shadow of such past glories but Elsworth still remains a trainer of the highest calibre.

With a string of approximately 15 juveniles, his first runners are likely to be seen from May onwards. In addition, early juvenile starters are more likely to attain a higher level of ability compared with those of later season. With a 15% win rate and 34% win and place for all two-year-olds, Elsworth has realised total win prize money of just under £300,000 in the last five years. A characteristic of debutants is their slow start, probably an instruction from the trainer as it happens so regularly that it would seem beyond coincidence. This trait may illustrate why he has such a poor win rate on debut. There is little doubt runners improve with experience although it is worth noting that juveniles priced relatively short odds on their racecourse bows often have potential to win within this formative season. As noted, much-improved performances are likely on the second career starts and fancied juveniles feature fair win and place averages. Owners Richard Green and J C Smith are notable candidates for better juveniles although it may be fair to say that these respective connections place their better juveniles with other trainers. Lordship Stud has been successful with Swiss Franc and Swiss Diva, both winning significant price money.

In summary, Elsworth is predominantly a trainer you can oppose on debut and be assured that racing experience will bring about natural progression. In fact marked improvement may lead to youngsters winning on their third or fourth starts. A trainer of such talents and proven record deserves more opportunities. The general standard of two-year-old of late has been limited. Nonetheless, Elsworth is a trainer who must be respected. If he were lucky enough to house a talented juvenile, few trainers would match his placement of individuals or achieve the level of success he has found with some noteworthy fillies.

Kingston Warren, Wantage, Oxfordshire, is the base for a true gentleman of racing, Henry Candy. Although not renowned as being a two-year-old trainer, he is realistic in his appraisal of ability and a considerate handler. The purchase of Amour Propre costing only 1,500gns was inspired and certainly one of the best juveniles he has trained in recent years.

Generally, his string of two-year-olds number in the region of 10 – 15 and rarely appear before June. A win rate for all juvenile runners of 11% and 32% win and place indicates a fair level of success. It is apparent from a 4% win rate on debut that juveniles are likely to improve with their racing and a good number of these were priced 13/2 & less which doesn’t inspire confidence. As is normally the case, second time out statistics give much more encouragement and two-year-olds are well placed to run big races and determinedly consistent.

Windsor is one of Candy’s favourite courses and feature an average win rate although no course stands out with regard to course, numbers of runners or outstanding statistics. Owners Thurloe Throuroughbreds are always worth noting as potentially mines for talented juveniles – Corrybrough is a sparkling example.

Candy is an interesting trainer because although he doesn’t have a vast string of two-year-olds or a wealth of talent he is capable of finding a classy individual and achieving much success. This contrasts with most trainers who have little or next to no chance. Certainly Amours Propre, Corrybrough & Oldjoesaid have highlighted the talents of this affable man.

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Beverley House Stables, Malton, North Yorkshire is the home of respected trainer, Linda Stubbs. Make no mistake this professionally run operation have a keen eye for a good buy at the sales and canny gamblers. Generally working with a small string of two-year-olds, their youngsters often attain a winning level of ability, keeping busy with consistent, durable types. The classy two-year-old Saxford won at Listed level and narrowly failed to land the Prix Eclipse (Group 3) in Chantilly, France.

Stubbs’ two-year-olds are often ready to run from the start of the turf season and in recent years have featured entrants in the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, continuing throughout the season. A general win rate of 15% and 40% win and place indicates that they are no forlorn hope at speculative odds. Last season saw a couple of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow but a win rate of about 8% illustrates that the majority of youngsters improve for the experience. Northern courses have proven a good hunting ground with cheap purchases taking advantage of maidens and auction events. The Tyme Partnership have done particularly well with their juveniles with Stubbs in recent years, while winning debutante Theymistim may prove to be a particularly good buy for 10,000gns.

Prospective owners would do well to consider the talents of this professional trainer as she is a talent and does remarkably well with her small string of juveniles, often bargain buys. There is little doubt 2010 will be another successful season for this stable.

Cavendish Stables in Newmarket, Suffolk, is the home to one of the most colourful characters in racing – Alan Bailey. With a long and successful career in the training ranks, he has often been described by racing press as a shrewd, straight-talking man with a choice use of vocabulary to the point of being quoted as not being able to string a sentence together without it containing an expletive or two. Whatever his turn of phrase, Bailey knows how to train a winner – a fact proven by the talented filly Aspen Darlin who competed at the highest level at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting.

As a two-year-old trainer, he features a limited number of runners and general win rate of 7% and 28% win and place. Over the last five years, his juveniles have won total prize money of almost £190,000. Racing from April onwards, youngsters are predominantly cheap purchases and have limited ability. It is noticeable that a number of his best prospects have run early season. Most juveniles are unfancied in the betting (20/1 – 33/1) and more nursery types. The key to finding Bailey’s precocious juveniles can be identified by following stable money. Connections seem keen to take advantage of betting opportunities with their talented juveniles on debut. Gambles are a significant factor to the fortunes of this stable. If a gamble ensues, two-year-olds hold good win and place prospects when priced 8/1 & less.

Bailey is a capable trainer who generally lacks the class of juvenile to register against the larger Newmarket stables. Aspen Darlin, a truly determined character, must have given her trainer a whole new vocabulary as this bay filly by Indian Haven progressed from maiden winner – claiming Group success along the way – to compete at Classic race level. Her career was concluded on the 3rd May 2009, at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting, where she sustained a tendon injury. Thankfully her condition wasn’t fatal and although her future as a racehorse was cut short, connections will be hoping her breeding career produces offspring that exemplify such battling qualities.

Saeeb Bin Suroor is one of few trainers to be recognised on the world stage. Bolstered by his connection with Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum, Godolphin has transformed horseracing to a point where it would be sadly lacking if we lost this noble presence. Certainly its dominance within British and Dubai-based racing has brought success at the highest levels with a calibre of horse most trainers could only imagine. Perhaps it is for this very reason that punters and journalists alike often lament on their failings – perhaps in justification that money is no guarantee of success.

But what are we to conclude from the performance of their two-year-olds? In recent years the youngsters have been far from impressive, all be it a few sparkling individuals, the general standard and limited number of runners has been disappointing. However, the 2009 season saw more promise with an abundance of runners and winners and this could be reflected in an exciting three-year-old campaign.

Saeed Bin Suroor takes his time with his juveniles with a handful of runners in May but greater numbers throughout the summer and autumn. Their two-year-olds have a general win rate of 28%, which is slightly lower for juveniles on their debut. There is one major finding regarding the Godolphin juveniles: they generally short odds. In recent years, 30% of juveniles have been priced 3/1 & less when making their racecourse bow. Juveniles on their second start make interesting reading. Here their win rate is substantially higher and features an impressive 70% place rate for individuals priced 13/2 & less. However, this statistic must be taken in context. Over 50% of the juveniles, racing and winning in 2009, were priced even money or less and the majority 7/2 & less. Bin Suroor details an impressive win rate at Lingfield (AW) and York – 50% from 40 runners.

There is little doubt Saeed Bin Suroor’s juveniles have the potential to compete at the highest level of racing. However, all too often such promise has failed to materialise. The 2009 season saw a revival of fortunes and this success should be congratulated. This 2010 Flat season may see Godolphin realise their potential, which is only fitting with regard to their considerable investment.