UK Horse Racing Tips

OK, no one can tell you who’s going to win this year’s Grand National exactly, but we can narrow the field right down and tell you what the horse’s overall features will probably be. That’s because the race is far more of a form race, these days, than it’s often given credit for. But here’s the interesting thing – this is very often not properly reflected the Grand National betting market.

The Grand National is by far the world’s most famous chase and if we look at the actual results down recent years since the track and fences were made a little easier, the stats tell an interesting story. Firstly, consider the age of your selections. Eighty per cent of all winners are aged between 9 and 11.

Next – weight is all important. The mean average carried by the winner over the last three decades is just under 10 stones 9 pounds. In recent years, though, the average has crept up a little to 11 stones, but very few horses are capable of carrying much more over the four and a half tough miles, particularly in slightly yielding ground. So the eventual victor is likely to be carrying anywhere between 10 stones and around 11 stones five pounds maximum.

So don’t go for anything carrying over 11 stones four pounds. Interestingly, this approach rules out some of the favourites for this year’s race. For example, Betfair has former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run at around 13-1 at the time of writing and Tidal Bay at around 15/1, yet both carry weights which previous stats say won’t happen.

Betfair punters still make Teaforthree the 19/2 favourite, however, and as the horse will carry 10 stones 12 – this is far more of a winning mark.

The same can be said for second favourite Monbeg Dude, currently a 12-1 chance with Betfair and set to carry 10 stones 9 pounds.

There are many other things to consider, too, though such as a horse’s liking for the going on the day, its warm-up preparations (four out of five recent National winners had had a hurdle race in the build-up) and the official rating; most winners these days have a rating of over 136. Also; all the last ten winners of the race had won a chase worth £17k or more before the National and had won over three miles or more.

So now who’s going to win?

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