UK Horse Racing Tips

Archive for the ‘Racing Tips’ Category

It’s now the start of the Flat turf season for the two year olds. It’s a time of excitement but also tinged with trepidation. Perhaps that is a little too strong a word.

I am ready for the journey ahead.

This year seems even more important than most, which is saying something after 30+ years of work. To be a professional gambler takes in-depth knowledge and a grounded person. I didn’t just wake up one morning with the skills to beat the layers. It has been a journey of self-learning, testing my mettle, and appreciating mistakes. It would be foolish to consider the layers are easy prey. Bookmakers don’t make millions a year from being second best. As the saying goes: ‘Vegas wasn’t built on winners.’

When it comes to skill, I am prepared to look the best in the eyes and smile.

However, I don’t want to realize this time next year that I was foolish in my endeavours.

As with all investments, there are no guarantees. We live in a very competitive world. Just because we can’t see the competition, it doesn’t mean it’s not there. As Dave Nevison once said: ‘Bet like a man.’

We all have dreams. At least, we should do. But, let’s face it, few are going to help them come true. We are either building our dream or someone else’s. That’s why I have worked hard to be my best. All I can be, which is everything, is as good as I can be. When gambling it isn’t all about winners. It is about finding value. Betting with skill so that long-term you win. I could bet £1000 over ten bets at 1/10 to win £1000. One loss, I would break even. So often people bet on favourites because they give false hope. They are an illusion. You see the winners but are they ever enough to discount the losers which bite into your profit?

People are surprised when I say: ‘I rarely bet on a horse that isn’t double-figure odds.’ I can see in their face that it puzzles them. They cannot grasp how that can be but also appreciate that when I say something it has worth. Without question, it intrigues them. They always want to know more and appreciate how this works.

Perhaps it sounds like alchemy.

‘So you can turn lead into gold. Is that what you’re telling me?’

They never ask that question, although I’m sure they are thinking it. I say they, as I have a mailing list of about 1000 subscribers. I rarely send out any mailings. The strange thing is that people are interested in less than more. I guess it makes sense. When you try too hard to sell people can see it a mile off. I have nothing to sell. That gets the interest to a new level. However, I am doing the horses for myself. I work with my brother and one other person in the group who we kind of mentor. They are there for the ride.

The Flat turf season starts on the 23rd March and finishes in early November. Out of season, I have been updating my horse trainer statistics. There are at least 200 horse trainers in the UK. It pays to have an appreciation of all. Every trainer has their day. If they train long enough they will get a good horse, eventually. They deserve one.

So I have been honing my skills to be up to the task.

You may be reading this and thinking: ‘What does he know?’

You’d be surprised. Each and every mistake has been assessed to make improvement. Each question answered. But within that understanding a knowledge there will be more questions to come. Additional answers found. It takes time to cut and polish a diamond. You don’t just give it to someone who fancies a go.

To be a good gambler, you need to keep calm. You need to be confident in your knowledge and ability. You need to enjoy what you are doing and make it work for you. Too many people are stuck on this eternal conveyor belt, and they cannot get off. Quite often, they have actually created it themselves.

The answer to the question of gambling is having the skills to make a healthy profit and bet enough money to outweigh the cost of living.

That is where the bar is set.

I don’t worry about the layers. It is very much like an elite athlete. They have to perform to their best. That’s how they get world records.

In truth, the season is short. The start of the season is slow to gather pace. And that’s why every opportunity must be taken. However, you cannot afford to push too hard. Never try too hard. Never look for the next winners as if it can be thought into being. Just put in the time, use your skills and bet accordingly.

Simply do what you should do all season.

Work with professionalism.

When the winners come, enjoy them. Go do something exciting. Re-enforce the act of success.

The money is there to be won.

You don’t even need to be the best in the world.

Just be a little better than most.

I wrote an article a while back titled: What Happened to Nick Mordin? It’s one of my best post [according to Google] and top ranked No 1 on the said search engine. The article only came into existence because I had a reader contact me asking if I could forward Nick Mordin’s contact details.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t be of help.

So where is Nick Mordin?

No one knows.

Nick Mordin has always been a respected horse racing journalist and author. In fact here are just a few books he has written over the years:

Betting for a Living, published by Aesculus Press Limited (1992)

A book where Mordin details how he won a £1000 a month from bookmakers just betting on week-ends and public holidays.

The Winning Look, published by Aesculus Press Limited (1994)

The sequel to Betting For A Living. Here Mordin explores with a bit of intelligent observation of horses in the paddock can help punters make a profit and form betting strategies.

Mordin On Time, published by Rowton Press (1996)

This is something of a collectors book with first editions going for £80. In this book Mordin attempts to answer the fundamental question of all punters: ‘Which horse is the fastest?’ He was taking sectional timings long before American books on speed ratings were published. This remains the only book in the world which allows readers to construct their own speed rating wherever they live.

Winning Without Thinking: A Guide to Horse Racing Betting Systems, published by Aesculus Press Limited (2002)

A book resulting from over 30,000 hours of researching race results over the years. This publication aims to uncover the principles that govern the betting market and racing results themselves. He shares the results of systems from himself, academics & professional gamblers. It’s a fascinating read.

Personally, I own Betting for a Living, The Winning Look & Mordin On Time. All excellent reads. I will be purchasing the other copy and writing a few articles about my findings.

Nick Mordin has always been respected for his search finding strategies and systems to make your betting pay. I’m sure many readers enjoyed the Sporting Life: The Weekender, which is released every Wednesday. As the blurb says: ‘It is designed to look at the best bets for British & Irish racing for the week ahead, with a particular focus on the biggest betting races of the weekend.’

I loved the good, old days when Nick Mordin’s Systems, often taking a double-page spread to get his valuable information across. In fact, it was one of my brother’s studies which put our research in the limelight when Mordin wrote: In a Class of their Own: How to Spot Top-Notch Two-year-olds.

It was published May 14^th 1994.

I’m not sure how many years Mordin worked for The Weekender but he was very well received.

If you know where Nick Mordin resides these days we would love to hear more. I for one miss his knowledge and insight, especially those systems.

I don’t like being negative so I’m in two minds to write this article. I’m a lover of horse racing and frequently visit Great Yarmouth Racecourse. I know what you are saying: ‘Well, I see your problem already! You’ve been following the wrong code of racing from the start. How can the Flat compare with the National Hunt?’ I’ve been to a couple of National hunt meetings: Huntingdon & Fakenham. To be honest, I enjoyed the experience. Sadly, I’ve seen a couple of horses fatally injured. Nothing worse that hearing the sigh of the crowd, followed by the cheering on the winner and five minutes later a jockey walking back with a saddle but no horse. That’s not my reason for not wanting to go to the Cheltenham Festival.

Living in Cambridgeshire, a Fen Boy, it would take three or four hours to get to Prestbury Park, Gloucestershire. I guess I could get the train from March changing at Birmingham New Street and some 2 hours and 6 minutes later I’m at Cheltenham Spa. Standard return costs £105.10 or First Class at £275.20.

I could have got a day out with the Ship Inn public house in my home town which would have been a much cheaper alternative. Paul, the landlord, is a lovely man and generous. My brother and I have been with the groovy gang to Fakenham (the first time called off when we arrived after torrential rain and waterlogging), the second time I couldn’t attend but my brother, Tony, and cousin, Danny, had a great day out and returned in profit.

Cheltenham tickets range from £37 – £86 (Club Enclosure) so a pretty expensive affair if you want to go all four days.

£7.50 for a pint of Guinness. Yes, it’s probably a quid extra compared to Great Yarmouth. In fact, the entry to Ladies’ Day on the coastal track is a pretty similar price (£31).

I know what you’re saying: ‘It’s horses for courses.’

To be fair you are getting closer to my reason why the impossible is happening before your eyes that I would rather go to Great Yarmouth than The Cheltenham Festival. ‘The sea air must have addled his mind! A candyfloss laden with drugs. Perhaps the Puppet Man had a word in my shell.’

In reality, I can’t give the reason of travel times as an excuse. It takes an hour less to get to Cheltenham.

The problem I have with Cheltenham is that it’s one hell of a busy place. In fact, 65,000 people attend each day. I’m not sure how busy and cramped that seems but watching on TV I kind of think about a goldfish in a bowl. A small round bowl, without the gravel or castle. As the weather turns, I’m thinking where will I go to get out of the rain. Do I need a wax jacket, flat cap and Dunlop Wellington boots? Should I take a packed lunch? And will I ever get to the bar for my pint? And after a few pints, how long do I have to wait for the toilets?

I remember years ago I went on a bus from our local The Lord Nelson pub to Royal Ascot. I think that was Ladies Day. Honestly, that was one of the worst days I ever had at the races. It rained all day. Drenched to the skin. Huddled under cover for a short time like sardines in a can. If I could have clicked my fingers, I’d have been transported home. Instead we had some old coach take us home. An endless journey, starring out of a rainy window. Communities looking at us thinking we had been rescued from a sinking ship.

I’ve never been so happy to return home.

The thought of travelling to the Cheltenham Festival to be stuck in a giant crowd isn’t a good feeling. A sea of umbrella’s (I’d be one of the poor souls who didn’t bring theirs), squelching feet. Honestly, one loser would push me over the edge. I’d be crying into my Guinness which would be topped up with rain.

I’m sure if dressed for any weather, a luxury hotel down the road and some VIP experience I’d be singing to the rafters about my day(s) at Prestbury Park.

Give me a lovely summer’s day at Great Yarmouth, ideally mid-week when there’s hardly a crowd.

Sometimes you have to be against the crowd.

On this occasion I am.

I started reading Patrick Veitch’s Enemy Number One: The Secrets Of The UK’s Most Feared Professional Punter, published by the Racing Post in 2009.

It’s a good read. In fact, I’m halfway through it. A mix of professional punting, scared for his life and even selling racing tips. I say racing tips in the way of being paid to give racing tips. This was an interesting read from Mr. Veitch who detailed that while studying Mathematics at Trinity University at Cambridge he was paid to give racing tips, which paid well. He teamed up with a few people along the way and had advertisements in The Sporting Life and Racing Post, at one time under the name of The Professional. By all accounts it was a good money spinner until other tipsters – let’s call them the good, bad and ugly – starting to saturate the market and it wasn’t viable from there on.

After his initial tipster escapades, Veitch was approached by The Winning Line, founded in 1992 by Stephen Winstanley, a costly subscription service, which detailed the tips via recorded telephone messages. For this he sign a contract and was paid £100,000 per annum and bonuses on performance. It was a lucrative deal but something that didn’t sit very well with ‘Baby Faced Assassin’ who would rather have time for himself and do his own thing. He made a healthy profit for the company, which obviously kept the punters happy.

I found it interesting from reading Dave Nevison’s A Bloody Good Winner: Life as a Professional Gambler, published by Highdown in 2007, that he too had been paid £100,000 for his tips by The Winning Line in 2000. On balance, it would seem that both appreciated the earning potential of the contract but for both tipsters it was a short-lived experience.

I think Veitch worked with The Winning Line around 1995 and Nevison in 2000. I wonder if there were any other high-profile professions who were involved. It would be intriguing to know the other faces and how they went. I would love to read a book published about The Winning Line as it would be fascinating to hear the thoughts of both partner’s Stephen Winstanley and Nick Stewart.

If the horse racing tipster of today are making money at the same level it must be a very lucrative deal. As Veitch detailed, The Winning Line was very successful in his duration and within minutes of tips being given the prices shortened. This has been the case with other services and the market adjusts for those who are well informed. In fact, many imply have their tips were passed on by other tipsters as their own which was even accepted by some publications and turned a blind eye to.

It would seem that both Veitch and Nevison made hay while the sun shined but the implications of working in the world of giving racing tips hindered their enjoyment of simply being professional gamblers.

A fascinating read.