UK Horse Racing Tips

Archive for March, 2010

Sylvester Kirk’s Cedar Lodge stable at Upper Lambourn has often been the home of a decent two-year-old. In recent years Elhamri and Caldra, both running in the familiar colours of owner Norman Ormiston, see photo, have clearly marked Kirk as a talented trainer with wins in listed and group class events. With additional owners such as J.C.Smith, Lady Davis (Art Master), Deauville Daze Partnership (Talking Hands) & Christopher Wright, to name a few, there is always a chance he will soon be adding to his tally.

Kirk is an interesting trainer with a very contrasting level of two-year-olds. His general statistics indicate that he is very unlikely to win on debut and even short-priced juveniles priced 10/1 & less have only attained limited success although around 50% of these individuals managed a place. This again shows the difficultly of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow. For juveniles priced 13/2 & less on second start he maintains a healthy win and place rate and often does well at all-weather tracks. Although often noted as a gambling stable, I have found such plunges rather hit-and-miss.
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Kirk can certainly delivery if he has a decent juvenile.

Probably better known to the general public for his exploits as the trainer of the much-loved Desert Orchid, David Elsworth gained significance as a trainer on the Flat in the 80s with the much-acclaimed Dead Certain an exceptional multi Group-winning filly whose impressive two-year-old season was crowned with the game victory of the Tattersalls Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). In recent years, Egerton House Stables, Newmarket, Suffolk has been a shadow of such past glories but Elsworth still remains a trainer of the highest calibre.

With a string of approximately 15 juveniles, his first runners are likely to be seen from May onwards. In addition, early juvenile starters are more likely to attain a higher level of ability compared with those of later season. With a 15% win rate and 34% win and place for all two-year-olds, Elsworth has realised total win prize money of just under £300,000 in the last five years. A characteristic of debutants is their slow start, probably an instruction from the trainer as it happens so regularly that it would seem beyond coincidence. This trait may illustrate why he has such a poor win rate on debut. There is little doubt runners improve with experience although it is worth noting that juveniles priced relatively short odds on their racecourse bows often have potential to win within this formative season. As noted, much-improved performances are likely on the second career starts and fancied juveniles feature fair win and place averages. Owners Richard Green and J C Smith are notable candidates for better juveniles although it may be fair to say that these respective connections place their better juveniles with other trainers. Lordship Stud has been successful with Swiss Franc and Swiss Diva, both winning significant price money.

In summary, Elsworth is predominantly a trainer you can oppose on debut and be assured that racing experience will bring about natural progression. In fact marked improvement may lead to youngsters winning on their third or fourth starts. A trainer of such talents and proven record deserves more opportunities. The general standard of two-year-old of late has been limited. Nonetheless, Elsworth is a trainer who must be respected. If he were lucky enough to house a talented juvenile, few trainers would match his placement of individuals or achieve the level of success he has found with some noteworthy fillies.