Archive for the ‘Racing Tips’ Category
5.25 Nottingham, Tuesday, August 15
August 14th, 2017 | 
Author: Our Kid was a first-time-out winner in a small novice auction race over 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton in May and, although disappointing on both turf starts over 6 furlongs since being gelded, the son of Elnadim has the potential to do better now that he’s switched to nursery company. Trainer Richard Fahey has a healthy 14-58 (24%) strike rate with his juveniles at Nottingham over the last five seasons and Our Kid is reunited with winning jockey Tony Hamilton, so an improved performance wouldn’t be a complete surprise.
It’s fair to say that Our Kid hardly leaps off the page as a readymade winner-in-waiting, but that should be reflected in his price and he’s in good hands to make the most of his ability. Looking on the bright side, Richard Fahey is showing a profit of 39.58 points in nursery handicaps over the last five seasons, so perhaps Our Kid can add to his winning tally.
Selection: Nottingham 5.25 Our Kid to win 14/1
Goodwood 2.25, Wednesday, August 2
Although still not fully exposed, On To Victory has improved since being gelded last October. Following a facile, 8-length win in a 0-95 contest at Salisbury two starts ago, the Rock Of Gibraltar gelding failed by just a neck and short head to defy a 6lb penalty in a similar race at Newbury eights days later. In fact, Eve Johnson Houghton’s three-year-old was probably the ‘moral’ victor on that occasion because, not only was the ground as fast as he’d want it, but the muddling pace was against him, too.
The handicapper has inevitably had his say, such that On To Victory steps up into 0-105 company off a 4lb higher mark than at Newbury. However, it’s difficult to argue that the weight rise isn’t justified and, back on slightly slower ground with a more generous pace to run at, On To Victory looks a decent bet to resume winning ways.
Goodwood 2.25 On To Victory to win (8/1 with Bet Stars, Paddy Power, Boylesports and Betfair Sportsbook)
2:30 – 5th May – Musselburgh Racing Tips EBF Maiden Stakes
Primo’s Comet made his debut in the Brocklesby and displayed inexperience with a slow star, swishing tail and bucking like a bronco. Unless a huge transformation looks unlikely to figure here. The odds illustrate no particular hope.
Hypnotic Dancer has raced twice and shown little ability.
Debutante Holmfirst is trained by Paul Midgley who has few winners on their racecourse bow.
The three major contenders follow.
David Barron is a trainer of note and someone to respect with debutantes. Shanghai Elastic This bay filly is a daughter of Swiss and 5,000G purchase at the yearling sales. This trainer from Maunby, North Yorkshire has respectable win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. It is a slight concern that this youngster costs a small amount of money.
The two principle hopes have both shown a level of ability with respect to the opposition.
February foal, Faithful Promise, was originally entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes but Mark Johnston opted for Wolverhampton. This daughter of Acclamation was relatively fancied but faded into sixth place. That was a strange race and the form has been somewhat patchy since. I had the feeling this filly was expected to have gone much closer and to that extent disappointed. That assessment seemed to hold water with a much sharper performance at Leicester. She finished second best to Capla Dancer who won at odds of 66/1. Such a huge priced winner does give the impression it wasn’t the strongest of contests. To be fair, that is probably part true. However, it is difficult to assess form at this time of year. Faithful Promise ran creditably and I feel the stable consider she has the ability to progress.
Richard Fahey has been in exceptional form this season and Shobrom ran in a competitive maiden at Newmarket. This bay colt is a son of Acclamation and £70,00 yearling purchase. It was no disgrace to finish sixth, beaten by just four lengths.
Conclusion: Most look unlikely winners and the major three hopes are worthy of interest. David Barron is a trainer of merit and Shanghai Elastic but a cheap purchase. On statistics, she holds each-way claims. The price of the horse is a concern. Faithful Promise has probably proven and should run well but may be a short price. If starting big odds-on I would be careful. In truth, there may be one horse in opposition. Shobrom ran well on debut is what is likely to be a stronger contest than seen at Leicester with Faithful Promise. If Fahey’s representative drifted to a bigger price it may be worth a bet. If both are under 2/1 I would take a watching brief.
4.10 Lingfield, Friday, April 14
William Haggas’ progressive colt Second Thought has accounted for Sutter County twice already this season and there appears no reason why he can’t do so again in the 3-Year-Old Championship Stakes (4.10) at Lingfield on Friday and, in so doing, maintain Robert Winston’s 100% record for the Newmarket trainer on the all-weather. Like his sire, Kodiac, Second Thought appears versatile with regard to distance and remains open to further improvement aft just four career starts. William Haggas has a 30% strike rate with his 3-year-olds on the Polytrack at Lingfield in recent seasons and clearly has his string in good shape with three winners from five runners in the last fortnight.
Selection: Second Thought to win (6/4 with Sky Bet)