UK Horse Racing Tips

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Newmarket trainer John Gosden appears to hold all the aces in the Bibendum Height of Fashion Stakes (4.25) at Goodwood on Thursday insofar as he saddles the highest and second highest rated fillies in the field, Jellicle Ball and Miss Giler. Preference on this occasion must be for Jellicle Ball, who would be conceding 7lb to her stable companion and 9lb and upwards to her remaining rivals if this were a handicap.

The daughter of Haydock Spring Cup winner Invincible Spirit started the season in promising fashion when failing by just three-quarters of a length to overhaul Redstart in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Newbury last month. She finished well adrift of winner, Legatissimo, in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month (as did Redstart), but takes a significant drop in class and looks worth another chance to confirm the promise she showed at Newbury.

Of course, Jellicle Ball has an extra quarter of mile to travel, but she has plenty of stamina in the bottom half of her pedigree (courtesy of Prix de l’Arc Triomphe winner Rainbow Quest) and should stay 1 mile 1 furlong and 192 yards on a fairly sharp track like Goodwood. Unfortunately, the bookmakers are well aware of her credentials, but the handicapper doesn’t make too many mistakes and she looks the most likely winner.

Selection: Goodwood 4.25 Jellicle Ball to win

In the Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (3.15) at York on Wednesday, Naadirr made decent progress throughout this three-year-old season, culminating with a win in the Listed Garrowby Stakes over course and distance last September. The son of Oasis Dream continued that progress when pushed out to beat Astaire by 1¼ lengths in the Cammidge Trophy on his reappearance at Doncaster in March and, although 3lb worse off with the runner-up, can confirm the form.

Astaire franked the form when running on gamely to beat Watchable by half a length in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket last month and, as two of the highest rated horses in the field (only Lightning Moon is rated higher), both he and Naadirr look well worth their place in this higher grade. Astaire is a worthy opponent, as are previous Group 2 winner Mattmu and Lightning Moon, but preference this time is for Naadirr, who appears to have improved over the winter and looks the type to follow until beaten. He seems sure to be popular at the 5/1 currently available in the very early price lists, having already shortened from 11/2.

Selection: York 3.15 Naadirr to win

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In the Arkle Finance Handicap (4.50) at Newmarket on Thursday, September 25, Billingsgate is one of the few runners obviously in form and can record his third win of the campaign. Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old won, in this grade, over the testing mile at Sandown three starts ago and, although subsequently only sixth of eleven, beaten 6½ lengths, in a higher grade handicap at Ascot, was only beaten three-quarters of a length in a similar race at Kempton last month.

The son of Exceed And Excel is another 3lb higher in the weights here, but went down fighting at Kempton, despite carrying his head at an awkward angle in the closing stages, and could still be open to further improvement after just seven career starts. Indeed, the Ascot form has worked out well enough, with the winner running an excellent race in defeat when second, off a 6lb higher mark, over 1 mile 2½ furlongs, at Doncaster two weeks ago and the fourth winning comfortably over 7 furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket last month on his only subsequent start.

Billingsgate has won on good to firm and good going on turf, so probably doesn’t want too much rain, although he did run well enough on his seasonal debut, on soft going, at Doncaster in April to suggest that he won’t be unduly inconvenienced if the showers forecast for the East of England overnight on Tuesday and on Wednesday do materialise. The uphill climb to the winning post on the Rowley Mile should play to his strengths, whatever the weather between now and Thursday, and he appears to have excellent prospects of improving his (already healthy) win-to-run ratio.

Statistically, trainer Charlie Appleby has a 3-15 (20%) strike rate with his three-year-olds on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket and jockey William Buick is 9-41 (22%) for the yard on runners in that age group, so the signs are quite encouraging on that score, too.

Another three-year-old trained in Newmarket, Master Of The World, has run well on all six handicap starts since finishing down the field in the 2,000 Guineas, over course and distance, in May, and could be the one who gives Billingsgate most to do. However, the Mastercraftsman colt is 6lb higher in the weights than when winning at York last month and appears more exposed than Charlie Appleby’s charge. In any case, the progressive Billingsgate is readily preferred on this occasion.

Selection: Newmarket 4.50 Billingsgate to win