Race Analysis 7:40 Ascot (May 10th)
Richard Hannon fields the top weighted Professor who has won twice in five races and never been beaten by any great distance. This step back up to seven furlong looks a positive move. This son of Byron, a chestnut colt, looks to have a solid chance.
Shebebi is another gelding who is taking a rise in class after a comfortable victory at Beverley when favourite, making his seasonal appearance. Mark Johnston’s horses have been in good form and he is a dab hand at taking progressive horses to a higher level.
Regal Dan is a determined son of Dark Angel who has shown ability from five to seven furlongs. He steps back up to seven furlongs after a creditable second at fancy odds last time. I was particularly impressed by his victory over Red Avenger when attempting this trip for the first time last season. He is likely to enjoy this stiffer test and the horse to beat.
Georgian Bay drops in distance after leading for most when racing over one mile at Kempton. He has raced up to Listed class.
Huntsman’s Close was a frustrating horse last season but finished on a high when taking his maiden at Yarmouth on testing ground. It will be interesting to see how he goes stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time. He cannot afford to be keen.
Pay Freeze hasn’t raced for over two hundred days and may need the run.
Conclusion: It will be interesting to see how Secret Talent handles this step up in class after an easy victory last time out. With Hughie Morrison’s stable in good form he could well prove a tough nut to crack. Professor isn’t top weighted for nothing and he has been a very consistent horse who battles hard and likes a scrap. I would favour Regal Dan who is a versatile horse and stepping up to seven furlong could see and bold show.
Grand National 2013: I Picked A 100/1 Winner
This Saturday, 6th April, it’s time for the greatest steeplechase in the world: The John Smith’s Grand National (4:15 Aintree). Check out our guide to the Grand National here. Of all horse races this attracts the attention of the general public and a race that many enjoy a flutter. But can you beat the bookies? I’m going to cut to the chase and just say it now: ”Can I please have another 100/1 winner? I guess that seems a tall order. Perhaps I’m just plain greedy. But hold your horses don’t I remember seeing a big priced winner? The Grand National is one of those races where anything can happen. In fact since its inauguration in 1829 there have been some remarkable stories. So ”Yes” if I cross my fingers, repeat the mantra Redrumredrumredrum…. until I’m blue in the face, this could be my lucky year.
Don’t believe me? Well let’s take a quick look a few big-priced winners of this amazing race.
For starters, did you know five horses have won at odds of 100/1?
The most recent was Mon Mone, trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Liam Treadwell, who won in 2009.
We have to go back to 1967 to find our next colossal priced winner. Foinavon may not have been the best horse in the world but he was one of the luckiest and famed for his National victory. A loose horse scuppered the chance of just about every rival when mayhem ensued at the 23rd fence. Foinavon, trained by John Kempton, trailed so far behind the field that his jockey had time to steer round the chaos. A few jockeys remounted but as much a they tried they couldn’t catch this most remarkable winner.
In 1947 the Grand National crowd saw another surprise performance when Caughoo won at – you’ve guessed it – 100/1. The eight-year-old was bought for just £50 & traveled from Ireland. Eddie Dempsey rode the horse to victory. Fifty-seven horses ran and all returned safely to their stables.
I know what you’re thinking. These 100/1 winners don’t come along very often? The last two winners had a gap of twenty and forty-two years, respectively. Surely it couldn’t be possible for 100/1 winners to happen in consecutive years?
Amazingly it happened in 1928 & 1929.
Tipperary Tim (1928) won a remarkable race. On a misty day with heavy ground conditions, there was a pile-up at the Canal Turn. Seven of the forty-two strong field emerge from the gloom. By the penultimate fence there were only three left standing. One horse was pulled up when his saddle slipped while the other fell at the last fence. William Dutton went on to win with only two horses finishing, after the fallen horse was remounted. The story goes that before the race one of Dutton’s friends said: ”Billy boy, you’ll only win if all the others fall.” His words turned out to be true!
Not only did the race in 1929 prove to be an outside-backers paradise it was also famed for being the largest Grand National field of all time with sixty-six runners. Gregalach, trained by Tom Leader, may have proved victorious at 100/1 but each way backers of the fourth-placed Mallery’s Belle were in for a surprise returning an SP of 200/1.
Surely it couldn’t be time for another 100/1 winner?
Good luck to all.
Luca Cumani
A busy day here at horseracingtips.org.uk . We’re preparing an update tomorrow where we offer some tips and list our views of the grand national prospects. Be sure to take advantage of the various available free bets, to maximise your winnings. Now onto our trainer profile of Luca Cumani…
Few trainers have attained the successes of Luca Cumani, the master of talents within his famous Bedford House stables – a place of folklore within Newmarket’s history of racing. Here the likes of Kahyasi, Barathea, High Rise, One So Wonderful, Gassamer, Falbrav, Starcraft and Alkaased have galloped towards astounding achievements that need little introduction.
But what are we to make of Cumani’s juveniles in recent years?
In many ways his general standard of two-year-old has been poor compared with such lofty highs of past. However, this twilight was lifted in spectacular fashion with the dawn of a the well-named Fantasia, winner of the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood and gallant second in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Ascot to the impressive Rainbow View. The 1000 Guineas will be one of her ultimate tests to join her peers.
Cumani’s juvenile statistics make very interesting reading, revealing a surprise or two. Perhaps most unsurprising is the fact that his juveniles seldom win on debut. In the last few years he has attained about a 6% win rate on debut and all of these winners were prices 8/1 & less. Clearly the likes of Fantasia, winning at 7/1, are known to have ability but inexperience makes winning a difficult goal to achieve on their racecourse bow.
The surprising point about Cumani is that juveniles on their second start have struggled to win when priced 13/2 & less in recent years. In fact his win performance with these candidates has been nothing short of horrendous. However, in contrast he has maintained a high place average, which probably suggests that many of his two-year-olds have not attained the highest of standards and fail to get their nose in front when placed to do so. It is interesting that a number of winners have been priced 8/1+. From experience, I have noted a number of talented juveniles running at Great Yarmouth.
It will be interesting to see what this year’s crop of two-year-olds may bring. Cumani will be hoping that Fantasia can live the dream attaining Classic race success. In contrast, he will be a very lucky man to find the likes of her within this year’s string. But few would be so foolish to say that Cumani will not have an ace, if not a whole pack of cards up his sleeve. As past successes prove anything is possible with this gifted trainer.
Grand National Fever
The Grand National will soon be upon us. On the 6th april to be specific. The Aintree extravaganza will once again enthral the nation and make the headlines as well draw the attention of an estimated 500 million + people around the world. This prestigious event will be the talking point in countless homes and workplaces, just as it is every year.
With this being the one horse racing event that sets friends and family a chatter, and results in endless competitions and sweepstakes, it really does draw the eyes of the nation, and the front pages of the national newspapers. One aspect of the Grand National 2013 that especially appeals to potential punters is the fact that big priced winners really are quite commonplace. The 2012 winner Neptunes Collonges came in at 33/1, 2011 winner Ballabriggs was 14/1 and let’s not forget 2009’s Mom Mome at a staggering 100/1. It’s the roulette spin of racing events where everyone is in with a chance. Who knows what surprises the 2013 event holds. Time will tell.
Speaking of which, this time around the betting market would have us believe that ‘On His Own’ at 6/1 is the way to go. Though he’s closely followed by Seabass (8/1), Cappa Bleu (10/1) and Colbert Station (10/1). Other contenders include Sunnyhillboy, Chicago Grey and Imperial Commander. Let’s not forget though that this is the Grand National, so anything is possible. With odds ranging from 6/1 from 200/1 and 30 jumps in between, it’s anyone guess. Be sure to place a bet and tune in!