UK Horse Racing Tips

Training from West Ilsley Stables, Berkshire, Mick Channon manages a vast string of horses, almost 200 at one stage, and a significant number of two-year-olds, which he has found much success with talents such as Tobougg, Queens Logic, Mail The Dessert, and Silca’s Sister amongst others.

Channon always makes a flying start to the season, often featuring entrants for the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster’s first Flat meeting of the new turf season, winding down in October, seldom having juveniles racing in November. On average, 80 juveniles will race in any one season.

In the last five seasons he has total prize winnings of over £1.3 million pounds for two-year-olds alone. With a strike race of 13% for all runners and 36% win and place he featured average statistics. From reviewing this data, we reveal a number of interesting points. Over the last few seasons his win rate for two-year-olds when making their debuts has been rather poor at around 7%, which suggests that many of his runners may improve for this initial experience, conflicting with the public view that his runners are primed to win. What is even more startling is that very few winners are returned at odds bigger than 8/1, generally they are priced 11/2 & less. As is generally the case, second start statistics illustrate much better with win and place averages, however, juveniles are most likely to be shorter odds than ideal such is the respect of this handler of his juveniles. Gambles are certainly worth noting and juveniles dropped into Claiming or Selling-class races often run well. A trainer who can often do well with bargain buys he trains for big and small owners alike. Jaber Abdullah has been a very lucky owner for Channon and his juveniles are always worthy of note.

With such a vast string of juveniles it is very much a numbers game for Channon who predominantly has a limited standard of juveniles with a fair number who can win at some level. However, within this mix are a select number of truly gifted two-year-old colts and fillies that have proven to be star quality attempting to give Channon that elusive first Classic race win. 2010 will no doubt be a very busy season for West Ilsley and there will be winners a plenty for this talented trainer.

One of Newmarket’s most dominant trainers, Jeremy Noseda has attained Classic race stardom with Araafa and a host of notable Group race success including the likes of Belmont, Carry On Katie, Just James, Kalypso Katie, Mellow Park, Proclamation, Sixties Icon, Soldiers Tale, Wannabe Grand and Wilko. Few trainers have such a wealth of influential owners or the capability of winning at the highest level throughout the world.

Noseda is a talented trainer of two-year-olds. In recent years he has averaged 30 juvenile runners racing from May onwards, often featuring entrants at Royal Ascot. With an average win rate of 20% for all runners and 50% win and place he has achieved significant statistics. In recent years his juveniles have attained a 15% win rate on debut. It should be noted that approximately half of all juveniles have been priced 13/2 & less on debut which somewhat tempers enthusiasm. With improved fitness, experience and good placing of youngsters’ significantly higher statistics have been noted on their second starts. Once again, runners are likely to be short prices. However, juveniles at bigger odds have featured quite good place averages. In general, Jeremy Noseda trains a high standard of horse, often multiple-Pattern entered juveniles, and as history has proven, they are capable of winning at Group level. With a select list of owners, such as Sir Robert Ogden, M Tabor, Saeed Suhail, Cheveley Park Stud, M Green & Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, it is easy to see why his two-year-olds demand much respect.

Noseda will be looking to make 2010 another prosperous season.

Without doubt Henry Cecil is a trainer of champions.

The winner of 35 classic races in the United Kingdom and abroad, including the 1000 Guineas on (6) occasions, 2000 Guineas (2), Derby (4), Oaks (8) & St. Leger (4) it could be argued that there is little left to achieve. To wonder at names of equine stars such as Wollow, Bosra Sham, Reference Point, Diminuendo & Michelozzo, which read like a wish list of fairytale proportions only to find that in reality the end of the rainbow, led to the stables of Warren Place. In 1985 Cecil’s talents were seen to their greatest when Oh So Sharp completed the fillies’ Triple Crown.

From the highs of the 90s Cecil’s stable went through a well-publicised decline but much has change in the last few years and the phoenix has most definitely risen from the flames.

Over the past few couple of seasons it is apparent that Cecil has been increasing not only the numbers of two-year-olds in his care but the quality of his juveniles. The Horses In Training 2009 publication details that he has over 50 two-year-olds and with owners such as K. Abdullah, Bloomsbury Stud & Niarchos Family and a wealth of well-bred horses. Who is to say this season will not be the one to deliver another class act.

From reviewing Cecil’s statistics it isn’t surprising to note that his general standard of two-year-old must be respected. His first runners are most likely to be seen from June onwards although he does have a debutant or two in May. It is interesting that about 40% of his juveniles are priced 13/2 & less on their first racecourse appearance such is his reputation. However, Cecil isn’t the most likely of trainers to win on debut and many of his juveniles are poor value in this respect. His juveniles are more likely to win on their second start and reason why he features fair win & place statistics. Again, such is his standing that the majority of winners will be priced at shorter rather than longer odds. It is always worth noting the juveniles in receipt of group entries, as they are generally the most capable in his yard.

There seems little doubt that Cecil will endeavour to find his next Classic horse. This talented, modest man has and will continue to smile through times of rain and shine because he knows only too well that when that rainbow appears it will probably span from Doncaster, Epsom or Newmarket to a stable named Warren Place.

Sylvester Kirk’s Cedar Lodge stable at Upper Lambourn has often been the home of a decent two-year-old. In recent years Elhamri and Caldra, both running in the familiar colours of owner Norman Ormiston, see photo, have clearly marked Kirk as a talented trainer with wins in listed and group class events. With additional owners such as J.C.Smith, Lady Davis (Art Master), Deauville Daze Partnership (Talking Hands) & Christopher Wright, to name a few, there is always a chance he will soon be adding to his tally.

Kirk is an interesting trainer with a very contrasting level of two-year-olds. His general statistics indicate that he is very unlikely to win on debut and even short-priced juveniles priced 10/1 & less have only attained limited success although around 50% of these individuals managed a place. This again shows the difficultly of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow. For juveniles priced 13/2 & less on second start he maintains a healthy win and place rate and often does well at all-weather tracks. Although often noted as a gambling stable, I have found such plunges rather hit-and-miss.
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Kirk can certainly delivery if he has a decent juvenile.