UK Horse Racing Tips

Probably better known to the general public for his exploits as the trainer of the much-loved Desert Orchid, David Elsworth gained significance as a trainer on the Flat in the 80s with the much-acclaimed Dead Certain an exceptional multi Group-winning filly whose impressive two-year-old season was crowned with the game victory of the Tattersalls Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). In recent years, Egerton House Stables, Newmarket, Suffolk has been a shadow of such past glories but Elsworth still remains a trainer of the highest calibre.

With a string of approximately 15 juveniles, his first runners are likely to be seen from May onwards. In addition, early juvenile starters are more likely to attain a higher level of ability compared with those of later season. With a 15% win rate and 34% win and place for all two-year-olds, Elsworth has realised total win prize money of just under £300,000 in the last five years. A characteristic of debutants is their slow start, probably an instruction from the trainer as it happens so regularly that it would seem beyond coincidence. This trait may illustrate why he has such a poor win rate on debut. There is little doubt runners improve with experience although it is worth noting that juveniles priced relatively short odds on their racecourse bows often have potential to win within this formative season. As noted, much-improved performances are likely on the second career starts and fancied juveniles feature fair win and place averages. Owners Richard Green and J C Smith are notable candidates for better juveniles although it may be fair to say that these respective connections place their better juveniles with other trainers. Lordship Stud has been successful with Swiss Franc and Swiss Diva, both winning significant price money.

In summary, Elsworth is predominantly a trainer you can oppose on debut and be assured that racing experience will bring about natural progression. In fact marked improvement may lead to youngsters winning on their third or fourth starts. A trainer of such talents and proven record deserves more opportunities. The general standard of two-year-old of late has been limited. Nonetheless, Elsworth is a trainer who must be respected. If he were lucky enough to house a talented juvenile, few trainers would match his placement of individuals or achieve the level of success he has found with some noteworthy fillies.

Kingston Warren, Wantage, Oxfordshire, is the base for a true gentleman of racing, Henry Candy. Although not renowned as being a two-year-old trainer, he is realistic in his appraisal of ability and a considerate handler. The purchase of Amour Propre costing only 1,500gns was inspired and certainly one of the best juveniles he has trained in recent years.

Generally, his string of two-year-olds number in the region of 10 – 15 and rarely appear before June. A win rate for all juvenile runners of 11% and 32% win and place indicates a fair level of success. It is apparent from a 4% win rate on debut that juveniles are likely to improve with their racing and a good number of these were priced 13/2 & less which doesn’t inspire confidence. As is normally the case, second time out statistics give much more encouragement and two-year-olds are well placed to run big races and determinedly consistent.

Windsor is one of Candy’s favourite courses and feature an average win rate although no course stands out with regard to course, numbers of runners or outstanding statistics. Owners Thurloe Throuroughbreds are always worth noting as potentially mines for talented juveniles – Corrybrough is a sparkling example.

Candy is an interesting trainer because although he doesn’t have a vast string of two-year-olds or a wealth of talent he is capable of finding a classy individual and achieving much success. This contrasts with most trainers who have little or next to no chance. Certainly Amours Propre, Corrybrough & Oldjoesaid have highlighted the talents of this affable man.

Beverley House Stables, Malton, North Yorkshire is the home of respected trainer, Linda Stubbs. Make no mistake this professionally run operation have a keen eye for a good buy at the sales and canny gamblers. Generally working with a small string of two-year-olds, their youngsters often attain a winning level of ability, keeping busy with consistent, durable types. The classy two-year-old Saxford won at Listed level and narrowly failed to land the Prix Eclipse (Group 3) in Chantilly, France.

Stubbs’ two-year-olds are often ready to run from the start of the turf season and in recent years have featured entrants in the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, continuing throughout the season. A general win rate of 15% and 40% win and place indicates that they are no forlorn hope at speculative odds. Last season saw a couple of juveniles winning on their racecourse bow but a win rate of about 8% illustrates that the majority of youngsters improve for the experience. Northern courses have proven a good hunting ground with cheap purchases taking advantage of maidens and auction events. The Tyme Partnership have done particularly well with their juveniles with Stubbs in recent years, while winning debutante Theymistim may prove to be a particularly good buy for 10,000gns.

Prospective owners would do well to consider the talents of this professional trainer as she is a talent and does remarkably well with her small string of juveniles, often bargain buys. There is little doubt 2010 will be another successful season for this stable.

Cavendish Stables in Newmarket, Suffolk, is the home to one of the most colourful characters in racing – Alan Bailey. With a long and successful career in the training ranks, he has often been described by racing press as a shrewd, straight-talking man with a choice use of vocabulary to the point of being quoted as not being able to string a sentence together without it containing an expletive or two. Whatever his turn of phrase, Bailey knows how to train a winner – a fact proven by the talented filly Aspen Darlin who competed at the highest level at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting.

As a two-year-old trainer, he features a limited number of runners and general win rate of 7% and 28% win and place. Over the last five years, his juveniles have won total prize money of almost £190,000. Racing from April onwards, youngsters are predominantly cheap purchases and have limited ability. It is noticeable that a number of his best prospects have run early season. Most juveniles are unfancied in the betting (20/1 – 33/1) and more nursery types. The key to finding Bailey’s precocious juveniles can be identified by following stable money. Connections seem keen to take advantage of betting opportunities with their talented juveniles on debut. Gambles are a significant factor to the fortunes of this stable. If a gamble ensues, two-year-olds hold good win and place prospects when priced 8/1 & less.

Bailey is a capable trainer who generally lacks the class of juvenile to register against the larger Newmarket stables. Aspen Darlin, a truly determined character, must have given her trainer a whole new vocabulary as this bay filly by Indian Haven progressed from maiden winner – claiming Group success along the way – to compete at Classic race level. Her career was concluded on the 3rd May 2009, at Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas meeting, where she sustained a tendon injury. Thankfully her condition wasn’t fatal and although her future as a racehorse was cut short, connections will be hoping her breeding career produces offspring that exemplify such battling qualities.